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Overconfidence and Risk Taking in Foreign Policy Decision Making - The Case of Turkey's Syria Policy
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Overconfidence and Risk Taking in Foreign Policy Decision Making - The Case of Turkey's Syria Policy
von: Imran Demir
Palgrave Macmillan, 2017
ISBN: 9783319526058
148 Seiten, Download: 3308 KB
 
Format:  PDF
geeignet für: Apple iPad, Android Tablet PC's Online-Lesen PC, MAC, Laptop

Typ: A (einfacher Zugriff)

 

 
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Inhaltsverzeichnis

  Overconfidence and Risk Taking inForeign Policy Decision Making 3  
     Preface 6  
     Acknowledgments 8  
     Contents 9  
     List of Abbreviations 10  
     List of Figures 11  
     List of Tables 12  
  1 Introduction 13  
  2 The Relevant Literature on Past Outcomes, Overconfidence and Risk Taking 20  
     Manifestations of Overconfidence 21  
     Sources of Overconfidence 23  
        Past Outcomes and Decision Making 23  
        Case-Based Probability Judgments and Overconfidence 25  
        Self-Serving Attribution Bias and Overconfidence 26  
     Overconfidence and Risk Taking 27  
     Risk Taking and Failure 27  
  3 Modeling the Relationship Between Past Outcomes, Overconfidence and Risk Taking 29  
     Model Specification 31  
     Research Design 37  
     Case Selection and Data Collection 38  
     Variables and Their Operationalization 39  
        Political Shock 39  
        Foreign Policy Behavior 40  
        Perception of Performance in Past Outcomes 40  
        Use of Past to Resolve Uncertainty 42  
        Overconfidence 43  
        Risk 44  
        Policy Performance 46  
  4 The Turkish Policy to Remove Syrian President Assad: Overconfidence Obscures Risks and Magnifies Failure 50  
     Introduction 51  
     Historical Background 51  
     Past Outcomes Inform Future Actions 58  
     Manifestations of Overconfidence 61  
        Unrealistically Favorable View of Turkey 62  
        Better-Than-Average Effect 63  
        Excessive Reliance on Their Information 64  
        Unrealistic Optimism 66  
        Heightened Sense of Capacity to Control Outcomes 71  
     Risk Taking 72  
     Miscalibrations in Turkish Foreign Policy 73  
        Failing to See the Limits of Knowledge and Capacity to Control Outcomes 73  
  5 Why Turkish Overconfidence Was Too Obvious 89  
     Capability-Aspiration Gap 90  
        Weak Domestic Consensus: Polarized Society, Contentious Politics and Retrogressive Democracy 95  
        Regional Competition and Foreign Policy Obstacles 100  
     A Critical Assessment of the Outcomes of the Policy 107  
     Were Turkish Policy Makers Aware of the Fact That They Were Taking Risks? 114  
     Elimination of Alternative Explanations: What Impelled Turkey’s Overconfidence? Sense of Success Before the Uprisings, or in the Uprisings? 115  
     Wrapping Up: Overconfidence Obscures Risk and Magnifies Failure 118  
  6 Conclusion 123  
  Bibliography 130  
  Index 143  


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